Land Treatment Exploration Tool

Project Name:

Treatment Type:

Previously Treated Areas

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Implementation status of treatments:

Confirmed Implementation

Confirmed and Unknown Implementation

Times Treated

Land Treatment Digital Library Treatments

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Overlapping Treatments from Land Treatment Digital Library:

Treatment ID	Treatment Type	Project	% Overlap

Wildfire History:

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Historical Climate:Processing...retry

Historical Drought:

Below, we provide a map of one of the most useful drought indices for translating meteorological drought into an index that is able to represent moisture in ecosystems, known as SPEI, the Standardized Precipitation Drought Index (Vicente Serrano et al. 2010), which is useful in assessing how "drought" prone site(s) of interest are based on long-term climate and tendency for the site to have annual deviations from climate. Several drought indices are available, but SPEI has become more widely used in settings such as the western US because the index incorporates temperature through basic calculation of precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration, and furthermore has been standardized using more complex calculations to make the index scalable for different applications (from the site to continent). SPEI values should be zero in the long term, unless directional change in moisture availability is occurring across the specified time range. SPEI typically range from approximately +2 to -2 for substantive wet and dry periods, respectively, and up to +4 and -4 for extreme wet or dry periods.

For the most recent SPEI Drought Map, see the SPEI Global Drought Monitor .

Enter any notes about the drought history that you would like included in the report:

Links for additional drought information:

U.S Drought Portal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).
Climate.gov's weekly drought map The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) map shows the location and intensity of areas currently experiencing abnormal dryness or drought across the United States.
United States Drought Monitor The U.S. Drought Monitor shows parts of the U.S. that are in drought.
Western Regional Climate Center The Western Regional Climate Center delivers climate services at national, regional and state levels.
Drought Index Portal A tool to display, compare, and extract time series for various indicators of drought in the Contiguous United States.
SPEI Global Drought Monitor SPEI Drought indices for historic or contemporary conditions for a particular location.
National Weather Service Climate Predictions Standard weather forecast

Land Treatment Digital Library Matches

			Similarity to LTDL Treatment								Treatment Evaluation
			Climate Rank (Value)	Heat Load Rank (Value)	Landform Rank (Value)	Project	Treatment Category	Treatment Type	Year	endyr	Imp	Poly	SL	Res	Mon	Ver	Prj_ID	Trt_ID	Prj_Name	TrtID	Plan_Imp	Success	Dates_Confirmed	Init_Date	Comp_Date	Units	Num_Units	Trt_Type_Sub	Seed_List	Objectives	Treatment_Effect_and_Results	Trt_Feature_Type	Feature_Status	Total_Acres	Field_Office	State	Doc_Plan	Doc_Report	Doc_Monitoring	Doc_Trt_Paper_Map	Doc_Photos	Doc_Seed_List_Exists	Treatment_Seeded	Seed_List_Confirmed	Actual_Implementation	Purpose	Seed

Project Name:

Treatment Type:

Report

Note: The scale on this map will determine the scale on maps included in the report pdf.

Area of proposed treatment:

BLM Administrative Unit Information

Enter any notes about the summaries that you would like included in the report:

Land Treatment Digital Library Matches

										Treatment Evaluation
Climate Rank (Value)	Heat Load Rank (Value)	Landform Rank (Value)	Project	Treatment Category	Treatment Type	Year	Imp	Poly	SL	Res	Mon	Ver

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service - Information for Planning and Consultation (IPaC)

The USFWS Information for Planning and Consultation Project (IPaC) tool was developed by the USFWS to streamline their environmental review process. IPaC helps to identify listed species, critical habitat, migratory birds or other natural resources that may be affected by a proposed project.

After the treatment boundary is created and at Step 3 – Explore site characteristics, some of the information available from the IPaC tool will be displayed below. A unique URL to an individual IPaC project will be generated for each project created using the LTET. If you want to log in and explore the full capabilities of the IPaC tool, go to (waiting for URL) resend treatment information

The first section below includes listed species that may be affected by the proposed project. IPaC provides the LTET with a list of species that are endangered, threatened, candidate, or proposed for listing. The LTET adds information on the status, description, where they are found, and a link to each Environmental Conservation Online System (ECOS) species profile. The second section below is a list of USFWS Birds of Conservation Concern or other vulnerable bird species. Data are provided from the Avian Knowledge Network data store and are additional species that may warrant attention in the proposed project area. The last section below shows data from the National Wetlands Inventory, including an interactive map, data table(s), and definitions.

Access their Frequently Asked Questions here: https://ecos.fws.gov/ipac/#faq

Example Location API output.

Seasonal Ecological Drought Forecast

Weather variability is well known to have strong effects on land treatment application and outcomes particularly in dryland ecosystems. Intra-annual variations in seasonal water and temperature is especially important, such as those driven by particular storms or short-term events that last weeks or months. Past research has demonstrated the importance of weather, and drought in particular, on the success or failure of dryland restoration (e.g. Brabec et al. 2017; Hardegree et al. 2018, Shriver et al. 2018, Moffett et al. 2019).

This tool forecasts seasonal weather and soil water availability to help plan treatments such as herbicide or seeding after wildfires. The forecasts may help in understanding past treatment results, and/or evaluate climate and weather effects on treatments.

Overview of tool

The Seasonal Ecological Drought Forecast Tool estimates soil moisture conditions for 12 months into the future by integrating National Weather Service regional seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts, including uncertainty, with an ecosystem water balance model. Users select a point location and can specify soil texture or use gridded soils data SSURGO and STATSGO. The Seasonal Ecological Drought Forecast tool generates site-specific temperature, precipitation and soil moisture forecasts and compares forecasted conditions to historical conditions at 4km resolution. These forecasts can help assess the potential impact of drought on land treatments in the next 12 months. The Seasonal Ecological Drought Forecast tool also forecasts sagebrush establishment success for the coming season. Metrics for additional plant species are planned for future versions of the tool.

click button to change the point:

Point

Instructions for using the tool

The latitude and longitude shown in the map box to the left represents a central point for the planned treatment boundary created in Step 2. The point can be changed by clicking on the 'Point' button below the map to clear the current selection and clicking a new point on the map. The Seasonal Ecological Drought Forecast tool is set by default to use gridded soils data to determine the percent clay and sand for the location. Click the 'Specify Soils' radio button to show fields to specify values for the percent clay and sand. Click the 'Calculate' button when location and soils selections are complete. It may take 3-5 minutes for the Seasonal Ecological Drought Forecast tool to return a report. The results will display below and consist of a summary, shown first, and overview graphs of soil moisture, air temperature, and precipitation. Clicking the section headers opens detailed sections for each metric. See the User Guide Drought Forecast tab for more detailed instructions on how to use this tool and interpret its results.

Use Gridded Soils Data
Specify Soils

http://10.12.7.58:80/gatherDataAndExecuteSW?clay=&sand=&soils=1&lng=&lat=

Calculate

Soil Moisture

Soil Moisture (Volumetric Water Content)

Shallow soil depthIntermediate soil depthDeep soil depth

The figure above shows an 18-month time series of soil moisture (volumetric water content) values in TOP soils. The time series includes recent (the last 6 months) observations on the left and forecasted values (the next 12 months) on the right. Variability in forecasted values is a result of uncertainty in the seasonal outlooks for temperature and precipitation. toggle long description

The figure above shows an 18-month time series of soil moisture (volumetric water content) deviations from the long-term site median of the 30-day rolling average in TOP soils. The vertical, dashed red line on the figure is today’s date and the vertical, dashed black line is the date of the most recent data from gridMet. The time series includes recent (the last 6 months) observations on the left and forecasted values (the next 12 months) on the right. The long-term historical normal for each day is plotted in the background to help compare the recent past and future to reference conditions. This figure helps users determine if soils are expected to be wetter or drier than normal. toggle long description

Temperature

The figure above shows an 18-month time series of air temperature. The time series includes recent (the last 6 months) observations on the left and forecasted values (the next 12 months) on the right. Variability in the forecasted values is a direct result of variability in the seasonal temperature outlooks. toggle long description

The figure above shows an 18-month time series of air temperature deviations from the long-term climatological normal for your site. The time series includes recent (the last 6 months) observations on the left and forecasted values (the next 12 months) on the right. The long-term historical normal for each day is plotted in the background to help compare the recent past and future to reference conditions. This figure helps users determine if the temperature is expected to be warmer or cooler than normal. toggle long description

Precipitation

The figure above shows an 18-month time series of precipitation. The time series includes recent (the last 6 months) observations on the left and forecasted values (the next 12 months) on the right. Variability in the forecasted values is a direct result of variability in the seasonal precipitation outlooks. toggle long description

The figure above shows an 18-month time series of precipitation deviations from the long-term climatological normal for your site. The time series includes recent (the last 6 months) observations on the left and forecasted values (the next 12 months) on the right. The long-term historical normal for each day is plotted in the background to help compare the recent past and future to reference conditions. This figure helps users determine if precipitation is expected to be less than or greater than normal. toggle long description

Sagebrush Seeding Success

Estimates of future seeding success can be made from the findings of historic relationships of post-fire sagebrush seeding success to soil-moisture and temperature conditions in and around the Great Basin. Below are estimates of big sagebrush seeding outcomes for the coming season derived from two recent publications. The first study (Shriver et al. 2018) identified that seeding success is greater where and when spring moisture is greater. The second study (O'Connor et al. 2020) further discovered that successful seedings had seven additional days of soil water available to seeds and seedlings based on soil physical properties (e.g. texture) when soils were above freezing, compared to unsuccessful sites.

Study 1 (Shriver et al. 2018)

These metrics were developed under the SageSuccess Project, which is a joint effort between USGS, BLM, and FWS. This study related soil water content in early spring and site air temperature the first half of the year to post-wildfire sagebrush seeding success. The results indicated big sagebrush occurrence is most strongly associated with relatively cool temperatures and wet soils in the first spring after seeding. The resulting forecasts help identity where and when seedings might be more or less successful.

In , there is a % chance that probability of establishment is above historical median

The boxplot on the left represent the median and the range of sagebrush establishment in the climatic normal period (1981 - 2011). Individual points of probability of success in more recent years are marked. The center and right-most boxplot are predictions for probability of success for and . The boxplots represent the range across potential realizations of the future. Data for will not be displayed until at least 6 months of forecast data are available for that year.

Study 2 (O'Connor et al. 2020)

These metrics were developed by the USGS under the Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) Ecological Drought Index study. This study used the SageSuccess data and included additional post-wildfire seeding areas for statistical validation, and considered whether the modeled soil-water contents were in the plant-available range during sagebrush germination and emergence (March). Soil-water availability relates to how strongly bound soil water is to soil. Values 0 to -1.5 MPa (megapascals) are typically easily extracted by most wildland plants while values below -2.5 MPa cannot be extracted by most plants, including sagebrush seedlings. This study found that successful seedings had seven additional days of soil water available to seeds and seedlings based on soil physical properties (e.g. texture) when soils were above freezing, compared to unsuccessful sites. These figures allow for the comparison between the user selected location and sites where sagebrush was or was not present.

Mean Daily Soil Water Potential

Mean daily soil water potential (top layer of soil/0-5cm only) in March across all sites used in O’Connor et al. 2020 study, where sagebrush was present (blue) and absent (orange), with a 95% confidence interval in shaded band. The predicted conditions for the selected site and 95% confidence interval are shown in purple. If 'Today's' date falls in March, days in March before 'Today' are observed values (yellow) and days in March after 'Today' are the predicted values (purple) for the remainder of the month. If the purple and blue lines are similar, then the selected site is predicted to have a similar soil water potential in March as did sites where sagebrush was present post wildfire seeding. Note that predicted values are more accurate for values in the near future than those in the more distant future.

Mean Daily Soil Temperature

Mean daily soil temperature (top layer of soil/0-5cm only) in March across all sites used in O’Connor et al. 2020 study, where sagebrush was present (blue) and absent (orange), with a 95% confidence interval in shaded band. The predicted conditions for the selected site and 95% confidence interval are shown in purple. If 'Today's' date falls in March, days in March before 'Today' are observed values (yellow) and days in March after 'Today' are the predicted values (purple) for the remainder of the month. If the purple and blue lines are similar, then the selected site is predicted to have a similar soil temperature in March as did sites where sagebrush was present post wildfire seeding. Note that predicted values are more accurate for values in the near future than those in the more distant future.

Potential Natural Sagebrush Seedling Survival

Previous research (Schlaepfer et al. 2014a) has evaluated how natural sagebrush regeneration (e.g. germination and survival from seed produced by established big sagebrush plants) is influenced by soil moisture, temperature, snowpack, and other conditions. Natural regeneration is a very different process from seeding establishment during restoration. Below is the forecasted probability of conditions supporting sagebrush seedling survival for natural regeneration in an unburned, intact sagebrush plant community.

Study 1 (Schlaepfer et al 2014a)

This study reviewed the literature to identify important drivers of big sagebrush regeneration (Schlaepfer et al. 2014b) and built a model based on those drivers that estimates big sagebrush regeneration potential on an annual basis, parameterized with field observations (Schlaepfer et al. 2014a). These regeneration patterns and forecasts relate to unburned, intact sagebrush plant communities.

In , there is a % chance that probability of survival is above historical mean.

The point on the left is the mean of conditions supporting sagebrush in the climatic normal period (1981 - 2010). The center and right-most boxplot are predictions for sagebrush survival in and . The boxplots represent the range across potential realizations of the future. Data for will not be displayed until at least 6 months of forecast data are available for that year.

References

Brabec, M.M., Germino, M.J. and Richardson, B.A., 2017. Climate adaption and post‐fire restoration of a foundational perennial in cold desert: Insights from intraspecific variation in response to weather. Journal of Applied Ecology, 54(1), pp.293-302.

Hardegree, S.P., Abatzoglou, J.T., Brunson, M.W., Germino, M.J., Hegewisch, K.C., Moffet, C.A., Pilliod, D.S., Roundy, B.A., Boehm, A.R. and Meredith, G.R., 2018. Weather-centric rangeland revegetation planning. Rangeland Ecology & Management, 71(1), pp.1-11.

Moffet, C.A., Hardegree, S.P., Abatzoglou, J.T., Hegewisch, K.C., Reuter, R.R., Sheley, R.L., Brunson, M.W., Flerchinger, G.N. and Boehm, A.R., 2019. Weather Tools for Retrospective Assessment of Restoration Outcomes. Rangeland ecology & management, 72(2), pp.225-229.

O’Connor, R.C., Germino, M.J., Barnard, D.M., Andrews, C.M., Bradford, J.B., Pilliod, D.S., Arkle, R.S. and Shriver, R.K., 2020. Small-scale water deficits after wildfires create long-lasting ecological impacts. Environmental Research Letters, 15(4), p.044001.

Schlaepfer, D. R., W. K. Lauenroth, and J. B. Bradford. 2014a. Modeling regeneration responses of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to abiotic conditions. Ecological Modelling 286:66-77.

Schlaepfer D. R., Lauenroth W. K., and Bradford J. B. 2014b. Natural regeneration processes in big sagebrush (Artemesia tridentata) Rangeland Ecol. Manage.67344–57.

Shriver R K, Andrews C M, Pilliod D S, Arkle R S, Welty J L,Germino M J, Duniway M C, Pyke D A and Bradford J B 2018. Adapting management to a changing world: warm temperatures, dry soil, and interannual variability limit restoration success of dominant woody shrub in temperate drylands. Glob. Change Biol.244972–82.

Methods

Methods & More info

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Weather Service (NWS) provides 'long-lead outlooks' for temperature and precipitation for 102 regions for the 48 contiguous U.S. states. These outlooks are the probability of whether a region will be hotter or cooler (temperature) and wetter or drier (precipitation) than their 30-year climatological normal (1980-2010) for multi-month forecasts and are updated each month.

The Short-term Drought Forecast API translates the information from the NWS CPC into predictions that are fine-tuned for specific locations, instead of the broad outlooks provided for 102 regions. In addition, monthly predictions are translated to a finer temporal scale, to be utilized as the climate driver in a daily driven, water-balance model, SOILWAT2. SOILWAT2 is a site-specific model, that takes inputs about daily weather, vegetation, and soils (multi-layer), and mechanistically predicts daily soil moisture, a metric used for evaluating likely success of plant germination and survival.

In order to integrate regional outlooks to site-specific predictions, historical weather for a site is downloaded from gridMet. gridMET is a dataset of daily high-spatial resolution (~4-km) surface meteorological data covering the contiguous U.S. from 1979-present. Using patterns between historical temperature and precipitation data, alongside NWS forecasts, a distribution of future anomalies is predicted using multivariate sampling. These predicted anomalies corrected and integrated with historical data from the climatic normal period to simulate potential trajectories in upcoming climate and soil moisture.

Detailed information about this downscaling and statistical process is documented here.

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Attribute	Value

Project Name:

Treatment Type:

Previously Treated Areas

Enter any notes about the treatment history that you would like included in the report:

Wildfire History:

Enter any notes about the wildfire history that you would like included in the report:

Historical Climate:Processing...retry

Historical Drought:

Enter any notes about the drought history that you would like included in the report:

Links for additional drought information:

Land Treatment Digital Library Matches

Project Name:

Treatment Type:

Report

BLM Administrative Unit Information

Enter any notes about the summaries that you would like included in the report:

Land Treatment Digital Library Matches

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service - Information for Planning and Consultation (IPaC)

Seasonal Ecological Drought Forecast

Overview of tool

Your Seasonal Drought Forecast

Quick view

Soil Moisture (Volumetric Water Content)

Temperature

Precipitation

Sagebrush Seeding Success

Study 1 (Shriver et al. 2018)

Study 2 (O'Connor et al. 2020)

Potential Natural Sagebrush Seedling Survival

Study 1 (Schlaepfer et al 2014a)

References

Methods & More info